Ending the day with a portrait on the screen.

 

fun with cameras and friends. 

I posted earlier today about Leica M240 batteries and their discontinuation. I seem to have discovered that they will still be able to be ordered from the factory as "replacement" parts. Several of mine are as recent as 2023 and one is from 2019 but two others are from 2015 and 2017. I'll put in orders at B&H and also at the Leica Store Miami and then stop worrying about it entirely. Because....who really cares? And all the batteries still charge to 100% and seem to hold their charges well. I'll panic when my usable supply of batteries diminishes from six to two.

I've been watching the stock market bounce around this week. Not much to do with photography but always of interest to me as I've been investing in equities for years and years and years. My takeaway is that the surprise drop this week had a lot less to with the jobs report and a lot more to do with unwinding the carry trade situation in which hedge funds and other international investors borrow zero interest rate money from banks in one sovereign country (in this case, Japan) to use for investments in other countries which usually yield higher returns (like the equities markets in the USA). Japan, in a quick snap, raised their interest rates on these loans and because the loans' rates rise and fall with the interest rates rather than being static like a fixed mortgage the loans became more expensive overnight and this intersected with the return on equities in the USA high tech sector dropping at the same time (looking at you guys, Intel and Dell). The gap widened and the investments became less profitable. Or unprofitable. There were margin calls which led to big borrowers having to liquidate big holdings in their short term investments, which drops values, which has a spiraling effect of causing retail consumer panic selling. The unwinding of the hedge fund and big investor positions is just about complete and that's reflected in the market's return to near stasis with recent values. The retail investors will creep back in when their comfort levels rise again.

Kind of wild. I also think there is much rotation between sectors in the market. A few weeks back it looked like the republicans had a better than 50/50 chance of getting back into the White House. This would have led investors to place bets on companies that would be helped by that regime. Now with the poll numbers seesawing in the other direction short term and medium term traders are dropping those stocks and moving into stocks that might be helped by a democrat in the White House. Fun with investing. 

For all you folks who don't give a shit about the culture wars or cults of personality it is historically instructive to understand that the USA economy has always, always, always done much better under democrat regimes than under republican regimes. Keep in mind that we were 30 trillion in the hole, as a country, under Trump while the Bill Clinton economic adventure actually came pretty close to eliminating a huge chunk of our national debt. You know, the money our kids and grand kids are going to have to shoulder..... the billionaires thank you for your sacrifices. But they're not about to share and nothing is tricking down. Unless you are a co-owner at Hermés or Gulfstream. 

I don't have much advice for anyone except this: Think long term. And as one of my swim buddies who manages a multi-billion dollar private investment fund tells me on a regular basis: "No one can predict market fluctuations. The smart money always stays invested." I've listened for 20 years.  Seems he's right. 

I've been thinking about it all week and I wonder if my interest in investing stems in part from being a self-employed person who never had access to matching 401Ks or pension funds. For us who work for ourselves to have any chance at being secure seniors it was totally dependent on us to figure out how to save money, how to invest money, and how to protect said money. If we didn't step up no one else was going to shore up our sagging fiscal foundations. Having the need to learn something goes a long way to sharpening one's focus for learning.

For many of the same reasons I've always seen exercise, and especially swimming, as an investment that has a very good return for time spent. Health is perhaps even more important than wealth. There are no guarantees in life but it behooves you to push the odds in your favor as much as you can. Sometimes you get lucky. Ignore it all and your luck tends to drop like a deflated basketball. No bounce either. 

If you work for a company or corporation or the state you'll experience a smoother ride through your career but you can never take for granted that they are always operating in your best interest... 

I saw some recent numbers about Americans' resources for retirement, post 50 years old. The majority of people in polls about personal finance said they would need about $1.4 million to be secure in retirement. The stats from Vanguard and Fidelity show that most retirees enter retirement with a median net worth of something like $330,000. Should be a wake-up call not just for the self-employed but for everyone out there. An interesting stat is that only .2% of people retire with over $5 million in retirement savings. That would seem like a much better target at which to aim. 

Final thoughts. Bill Gates and Warren Buffet both wear the same model of wrist watch. It's not a Panerai or even a Seiko. It's a Casio dive watch that you can buy on Amazon for about $50. Warren Buffet (net worth $35 billion) invited Bill Gates (net worth $127 billion) to lunch at McDonalds. Gates reported that when it was time to pay the cashier Buffett pulled a bunch of coupons out of his pockets and defrayed most of the cost of their combined meals with....every day coupons. 

Maybe there is a reason most people don't have enough money saved. Maybe they spent too much of what they made. Or maybe they just have other priorities. Anyway, these are some of the things I think about when I read the Wall Street Journal... Maybe reading that rag is a bad idea. 

A recurring joke about photographers: How do you make a million dollars in photography? Start with $10 million. You'll get there.